CANYON COUNTY, Idaho — A study by BLUUM said Idaho would need to build more than 100 new schools by 2030 to keep up with the demand for growth. Counties like Ada and Canyon topped the list with a projected highest number of student population growth by the end of the decade.
While some schools and school districts may be seeing growth and higher students populations than in years past, there are some in the area that are not seeing that growth. In fact areas like Nampa School District have seen a steady decline for almost the last 10 years.
"It's kind of been an interesting situation for us. We've seen a lot of growth in the city, but we haven't necessarily seen a lot of student enrollment as a result," said Peter Jurhs, the executive director of operations for Nampa School District.
According to Nampa School District, they've seen about 100-200 fewer students each year since the 2014/2015 school year. Their current district-wide student enrollment sits at more than 13,500.
Jurhs wonders if the demographic moving into their district boundaries are older Idahoans with kids that have graduated and left the household or are maybe retired.
"We don't see with some of our newer higher-end subdivisions here, we just don't see a lot of kids in those areas," said Randy Dewey, the director of finance for the Nampa School District.
Nampa School District saw huge growth in the 2000s with families moving into the area with students born in the late '90s and '00s. But the result was they went through the Nampa system and have slowly, steadily graduated since. Jurhs said the classes after were smaller because of the Great Recession in 2007 and other factors going on.
"We've had a couple of charters move in which kind of brought our growth down, and we've just never seen an increase since," Dewey said. "These new subdivisions just aren't bringing in the kids like we thought they would."
Gem Prep: Nampa is a charter school that has moved into the area within the last few years.
"In our mind, it's another option for families," said Chief Growth Officer for the Gem Prep Network Josh Femreite. "We're a college preparatory school and our focus is college access and getting kids those Associate's degrees before they graduate."
By 2024, Gem Prep will have six different campuses all over Idaho. Femreite said by the time each campus is fully grown it'll have 574 students.
When building a facility in an area, like Nampa, Femreite said Gem Prep leaders look at population growth, student count, test scores, how bonds and supplemental levies are passing, and more. He added they use tools like the BLUUM study when deciding on another potential facility.
"We look at it in phases. Phase one for us was Meridian, Pocatello, and Nampa. Phase two was our North Meridian, South Meridian, and Twin Falls campus, that's the phase we're in right now," Femreite said. He added they have a few years until their Twin Falls campus is open, but they are still watching the growth in areas.
Charter schools, like Gem Prep, rely on tools like fundraising, grants, and state funds to build new facilities.
In areas like Ada and Canyon County, Femreite said there is a demand and have been increases to those waitlists.
"It's definitely challenging to meet the needs that we're going to face in the future for all of these students. I think it's going to take everything from district to charter and even private schools combined to try and meet those needs."
Whereas a public school district like Nampa may not see growth in its students, Vallivue School District in Canyon County is.
"We've seen this coming for a long time," said Joey Palmer, the director of federal and state programs for the Vallivue School District.
Palmer said in the last school year, the district saw its highest enrollment jump ever with an 8.3% increase. It's about 650 more students. Palmer said on average Vallivue sees a 4% increase each year.
"A lot of the rural land is up for grabs by home developers and they're building on our land," Plamer said. "A lot of Nampa is landlocked and so is Caldwell school district's zone."
Vallivue is going for a $55 million bond at the March 8 election that will help with the growth.
According to Palmer, four of its seven elementary schools are already over capacity and two more are projected to follow in 2024. The district plans to use the money to build new schools, purchase land for future sites, and more.
He added the district may be looking at a third high school within the next ten years.
"We're getting to the point to where we are bursting at the seams," Palmer said. "We want to do right by our students and make sure we're getting a good education and that means they need more space."
While Nampa School District leaders said their current projections don't show their district needing to build another school in the next few years for growth, they still keep track of where growth may be and are planning accordingly.
"We're looking at, 'Where are the kids actually coming from?' and looking at, 'Maybe we need to shift some facilities to meet where the kids are going to be or where they currently are over where we currently have schools,'" Jurhs said.
They still may go for potential bonds to build new schools as current ones become older and dilapidated. As well, areas on the edge of the district's boundaries could see more growth. Jurhs explained the new homes are not being built near the schools the district already has operating, so it may make more sense to close a current facility and build a new one where more population is.
The last time Nampa School District had a bond was in 2007.
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