BOISE, Idaho — Millions of Americans will be traveling this week to spend Thanksgiving with their friends and family. As COVID-19 surges across the nation, medical experts worry this could increase exposure and send hospital capacity over the edge.
Dr. David Pate is one of those medical experts concerned about what Thanksgiving will do to hospitals. Pate is the recently retired President and CEO of St. Luke’s and he is a member of Governor Brad Little’s coronavirus working group.
His main concern is that the country is going to see a similar spike to what Canada saw after its Thanksgiving in mid-October. His recommendation is to celebrate Thanksgiving with the people in the same household.
“I think it is extremely dangerous,” he said. “There is a lot of infection just out in the public.”
Pate said traveling is risky this year because of the virus. He is choosing to not travel to see his mom in Houston for that reason.
“I could not live with myself if I ended up getting the virus on my way through travel and then infected her,” he said.
AAA is expecting a drop of around 10% in travel this year compared to last year. This would be the largest one-year decrease since the Great Recession in 2008.
While travel is expected to be lighter this year compared to 2019, there are still around 50 million Americans who are expected to travel for the holiday.
AAA expects that 47.98 million people will travel by car. This is a little more than a 4% decrease compared to 2019’s 49.9 million. As for flying, that is expected to see a larger drop-off. In 2019, they predicted that 4.58 million Americans would travel by plane. This year though, they’re expecting only 2.4 million, more than a 47% drop off.
Pate said the best way to travel if you’re planning on it is to drive. While being on a plane when it’s flying is relatively safe, there are still many risks to flying because people still must get to the airport, go through security and more.
“The safest part is when you’re up in the air but there is a lot that happens before that,” Pate said. “Then you go through all of this in reverse once you land and you’re going to go to baggage claim.”
With so many people traveling and planning to spend the holiday with a loved one, Pate worries about hospital capacity.
“This could be the tipping point for many hospitals across the country,” he said. “My number one concern by a long shot is hospitals. I think people have no idea how dire things may get.”
He thinks that with the rate of spread there is already and paired with infections caused by Thanksgiving, hospitals could be forced to enact crisis standards of care because too many people get sick at once and overwhelm the hospitals.
“Some people who would have survived in normal times are not going to survive because we're not going to have the resources,” Pate said. “I think Idahoans are in for a rude surprise.”
Pate does think there is a safe way to spend Thanksgiving with people outside the home. His answer is to quarantine, meaning not going anywhere for two weeks and then driving to the destination on Thanksgiving.
Above all, his best advice is to stay home as much as possible, wear a mask in public, and avoid gatherings.
“If you can, please stay home this Thanksgiving,” Pate said. “Please don’t put your family members in danger.”
It’s possible that people aren’t too far out from getting vaccinated for COVID-19 either. Pfizer has applied for an emergency approval from the FDA for its vaccine. The timeline for the general public to receive the vaccination is Spring to Summertime.
“It's months, people, months,” Pate said. “Let’s not be foolish.”