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Idaho health officials want 80% herd immunity by September

It's a pretty lofty goal. But is it attainable?

BOISE, Idaho — Setting goals. That standard you're trying to reach when you set out to do something like with COVID-19 and achieving herd immunity. 

The state is setting some pretty lofty goals for getting Idahoans vaccinated.

During a vaccine rollout meeting with the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare Tuesday, the state announced they hope to have 80 percent of those 65 and older fully vaccinated by June first.

And they're already on their way.

Right now, more than 70 percent of that age group has already gotten at least one shot. And about 63 percent are already fully vaccinated.

What does that mean for the rest of us?

All Idahoans 16 and older have been eligible to get a COVID-19 vaccine since last week.

And as of Tuesday, the state says nearly 39 percent of those eligible have gotten at least one dose of the vaccine.

About 27 percent are already fully vaccinated.

Pretty good, right?

But the the state wants us to be better, setting a goal of getting at least 80 percent of the general population vaccinated in the next five months.

"We are looking at September potentially is that 80 percent target rate, and we do know that an important piece of that is when we have vaccine approved for the Pfizer vaccine, we're keeping our fingers crossed, kids have to be part of that formula as well," said Idaho Administrator of Public Health Elke Shaw-Tulloch. "We can't achieve our 80 percent goal without also having them there."

"The reason we selected 80 percent is I'd say two-fold. One is that we continue to hear from the experts that really know best the impact of the variant viruses, knowing that they aren't sure, but right know, 80 percent is usually what is coded as a good target to aim for to try and achieve herd immunity.  And of course, that's what we want to be able to do," said Idaho State Epidemiologist Dr. Christine Hahn.

"So the second area was that it seems achievable if we're at 70 percent already for our seniors to try to really push to 80, because then we felt that we would be closer to herd immunity in that population, and then we could bring along the younger populations.

"We are hopeful that by the time school starts, like Elke alluded to in September, if the Pfizer vaccine is there that at least we will have some of our younger set included in that," Dr. Hahn said.

80 percent. That's 1.4 million of Idaho's nearly 1.8 million residents.

As of Wednesday, just over 380,000 Idahoans 16 and older are considered fully vaccinated. About 21 percent.

Meaning just over one million Idahoans need to be fully vaccinated by September to meet the state's goal and achieve herd immunity.

Some of those one million Idahoans have already gotten their first doses, so trying to figure out how many Idahoans would need to get the shot, per day, is tricky.

To add to that, just about a quarter of our population is under the age of 18.

Right now, there are no vaccines licensed for anyone under the age of 16. And only Pfizer is authorized for use in those between the ages of 16 and 17.

But Dr. Hahn says they're hopeful a vaccine will be available for younger kids by the time school starts in the fall.

Just recently, Pfizer applied for a review by the FDA to let kids ages 12 to 15 get the vaccine. But no word on if or when that could happen.

All of that aside, how are we supposed to get 80 percent when we can't even get 50 percent of the population to get their flu shot?

According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit that focuses on national health issues, Idaho was at 45 percent flu vaccination rate during the 2019-2020 flu season.

Not only that, younger Idahoans have been less than excited to get the COVID-19 vaccine.

Shaw-Tulloch said the state is starting to shift their approach, their message to younger adults.

She said they are planning to ask the CDC for a grant to help with outreach and education, offering after-hours vaccine clinics and even incentives to get Idahoans vaccinated.

Either way, we'll be watching to see how close we can get to that goal.

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