BOISE, Idaho — In a little more than six weeks, Idaho’s capitol city will elect a mayor. Two frontrunners have emerged in the race – incumbent Mayor Lauren McLean and retired Boise Police Chief Mike Masterson.
Who will win? Well, that’s why we have elections – tune in Nov. 7. But, a real interesting development Thursday was a voter poll on the contest that was published by the national group Public Policy Polling.
The group is recognized for legitimate polling across the country and political races. However, the Mike Masterson for Mayor campaign did pay for the poll, according to a campaign spokesman.
With that in mind, some of the data is tailored to that effort but here are some takeaways:
First the parameters: Public Policy Polling surveyed 651 likely Boise voters from Sept. 15-16, 2023. The margin of error in the survey is +/- 3.8%. 67% of interviews for the survey were done through text message and 33% over the phone.
When asked about favorability, respondents indicated that McLean is even with voters at 41% seeing her as favorable, and 41% as unfavorable – 17% are unsure. Masterson saw 28% favorable and 23% unfavorable, with 49% unsure.
A major piece of data: 28% of polled voters are currently undecided.
Boise State University politics expert Dr. Stephanie Witt said the polling is impressive.
“So, it wasn't just a quick call. It sounded like a fairly extensive polling effort,” Witt said. “I have never seen a poll in a Boise mayor's race. Now, that doesn't mean that someone didn't commission one and use the results internally for the campaign, but I've never seen one.”
The survey indicates that after going through positive/negative messaging to respondents, McLean’s lead shrinks from 13 to 4 points. Again, the Masterson campaign funded the survey, so questions could be tailored to beneficial outcomes.
KTVB asked Witt about the political strategy of releasing a poll like this. A big key – showing it’s a real race.
“That's how I would interpret the usefulness of a poll like this, to convince donors and potential voters that you're a competitive candidate," Witt said. "You have a shot at unseating McLean.”
Witt added the survey highlights the overarching dynamic.
“The incumbent has the advantage of everyone knowing your name, and so you have familiarity of name recognition. But being the incumbent means that you're on the hook for how it's going, and people will hold the mayor responsible for things that aren't really directly the mayor's fault or the mayor's ability to control,” Witt said. “He doesn't have that yet, right? So, he's relatively unknown, but he's also not having to really bear the responsibility.”
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