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#TuSTATS: Some peace of mind for Bronco Nation as March Madness approaches

The Boise State Broncos have at least a share of the Mountain West regular-season men's basketball championship, boosting their case for a return to the Big Dance.

BOISE, Idaho — When you sink into your favorite spot on the couch at home to watch your favorite team play basketball, it is supposed to offer you a euphoric feeling of comfort that entices your mind to just go, "aaaaah," as you smile and settle in for two hours of drama that will dictate your mood for the following day.

More often than not, this time of year, the sofa has been an unsettling spot for the Boise State men's basketball team. For the last six years, that has been their location during the NCAA Tournament. It's the place they react to March Madness as late-season losses accumulate, preventing them from contributing to the chaos.

Monday night was different though.

Monday night, the Broncos earned the right to clinch from their couches, and calmly claim at least a share of their first Mountain West Conference Championships since 2015.

Almost 700 miles to southeast of Boise, the Wyoming men's basketball team lost a thriller to San Diego State, 71-66. The defeat dropped the Cowboys two games back of the Broncos in the conference standings with just two games to go, an outcome that likely caused Boise State players and coaches to spring off the sofas, start addressing where the trophy might look best in the locker room, and ponder the possibilities of the best season in school history.

As fun as it is to imagine that parable, it didn't, in all likelihood, actually play out that way. Sure, the players enjoyed the outcome, but they proved they are ready to go the extra mile on social media.

After the game, both senior Abu Kigab and freshman Tyson Degenhart quickly invited fans to attend Tuesday's home finale, reminding members of Bronco Nation that a win over Nevada would give Boise State their first-ever outright Mountain West Regular-Season Championship.

As nice as this group of Broncos appears to be, that's a title they just aren't willing to share with anyone else, and if they can claim sole possession, it will make the next watch party on their couches that much cozier.

The appointment viewing for that occasion? Selection Sunday.

The monthly report

When Boise State started the season just 3-4, there was plenty of reason for fans to feel the pain of the struggle. Still likely unable to detach from a late-season collapse six months prior, the sting of arguably the worst loss in the Leon Rice Era was noticeably throbbing in the minds of even the most faithful fans, as the Broncos walked off the court after scoring just 39 points against CSU-Bakersfield.

To some degree of shock, that team is now embarking on the best season in school history.

After posting just three wins in November, tied for the third fewest in a season under head coach Leon Rice, the Broncos went on to win seven games in December and seven more in January, either tying or setting a program record for those respective months during Rice’s tenure.

In February, they picked up six more wins. The only Rice-led Bronco team to win more during the second month of the year (seven) was the one that qualified for the NCAA Tournament in 2015.

If you’re asking how can the Broncos make history in March? The bar is three wins.

Yes, Boise State won five games in March during Rice's debut season back in 2011, but the College Basketball Insider Tournament (CBI) is a far cry from the credibility of wins earned in March when you're an NCAA Tournament-type team.

Kings of the Mountain (West)

With 14 wins in Mountain West play this season, Boise State has tied the school-record for most wins in league play for a single-season, and that's regardless of their conference affiliation.

In fact, over the last two seasons, no other team in the Mountain West has won more conference games than the Broncos.

28 - Boise State

27 - Colorado State

27 - San Diego State

22 - Utah State

19 - Wyoming

17 - UNLV

17 - Fresno State

16 - Nevada

6 - New Mexico

6 - Air Force

4 - San Jose State

Credit: Tyler McFarland/Boise State Athletics
Boise State’s Abu Kigab advances against San Diego State, Tuesday, Feb. 22, 2022 in ExtraMile Arena. The Broncos won 58-57 on two Kigab free throws with 1.7 seconds left.

Bringing out the best of Abu

Ever since he transferred to Boise State three years ago, ExtraMile Arena has often brought out the best in senior Abu Kigab. In 36 career home games, he's averaged 13.4 points while shooting 51.4% from the field and 72.5% from the free-throw, all marks that lift his career averages.

On top of that, Boise State has a record of 31-5 when Kigab plays at home.

The final four

Senior guard Marcus Shaver, Jr. has been outstanding during the Broncos’ four-game winning streak:

19.8 PTS | 54.0 FG% | 47.4 3-FG% | 76.2 FG% | 4.3 REB | 2.5 AST | 2.0 STL

During the stretch he's scored 20+ points three times, and he has played 152 of 160 possible minutes, including all 40 minutes against UNLV on Saturday.

Somewhere over the Mountain

Not only is the Mountain West as good as it's been in years, but it's also one of the best leagues in college basketball this season.

And yet, they're still waiting for a team to jump back into the Associated Press Top 25, instead of continuing to live on the fringe, also known as the "receiving votes" column.

Below is a list of conferences that currently have three-or-more teams in the top 30 of the NET Rankings:

  • SEC: 6 — 5 of 6 ranked
  • Big Ten: 5 — All 5 ranked
  • Big 12: 4 — All 4 ranked
  • 𝗠𝗢𝗨𝗡𝗧𝗔𝗜𝗡 𝗪𝗘𝗦𝗧 (𝟯) - 𝙕𝙀𝙍𝙊 𝙍𝘼𝙉𝙆𝙀𝘿
  • Big East: 3 — All 3 ranked
  • Pac 12: 3 — All 3 ranked
  • WCC: 3 — 2 of 3 ranked

As you can see, the Mountain West is the lone league without a single team in the AP Top 25.

The metrics add up, too

The fine-eye also sees how good this Boise State team is. Statistical analyst Ken Pomeroy computes his own collection of data, attempting to weigh the tempo a team plays at.

Typically, the Broncos have played at a slower tempo this season, but just because they rank 230th in points scored per game (69.1) doesn't mean they have a bad offense.

With that in mind, Pomeroy ranks Boise State 86th in Adjusted Offense and 16th in Adjusted Defense.

Here is a list of teams in the NCAA that currently rank in the top 100 of AdjOFF and top 20 in AdjDEF, ordered by their rank in the AP Top 25.

  • #1 Gonzaga
  • #2 Arizona
  • #3 Baylor
  • #5 Auburn
  • #7 Kentucky
  • #12 Texas Tech
  • #13 Tennessee
  • #17 UCLA
  • #14 Houston
  • #14 Arkansas
  • #19 Saint Mary’s
  • #21 Texas
  • NR #BoiseState

As you can see, only the Broncos land outside the top 25.

Not too close for comfort

When Boise State beat San Diego State last week, it marked the ninth time this season the Broncos won a game by six or fewer points, putting them in the top 10 in the NCAA when it comes to close victories.

Most Wins by 6 points or less:

1. Wisconsin - 14

T2. UNC-Wilmington - 11

T2. Winthrop - 11

T3. Boston U. - 10

T3. Northern Colorado - 10

T3. Providence - 10

T3. Samford - 10

T3. Southeastern Louisiana - 10

T3. USC - 10

10. Boise State - 9

Of Rice and Men

Rice picked up his 240th victory as the head coach at Boise State on Saturday, further adding to the program record he already owns.

Record against MW teams:

  • Air Force: 16-6
  • Colorado St.: 13-8
  • Fresno St.: 13-8
  • Nevada: 9-14
  • UNLV: 14-9
  • New Mexico: 9-12
  • SDSU: 9-16
  • SJSU: 17-1
  • Utah St.: 12-9
  • Wyoming: 15-7

Overall Record against MW Opponents: 127-90

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