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IBR/KTVB poll: Tight races for Sali/Grant, Brady/Otter

12:30 PM MST on Friday, November 3, 2006

Adam Atchison/KTVB

BOISE - With less than a week to go until Election Day, a new poll finds that two of the biggest races in Idaho are too close to call.

The Idaho Business Review and the KTVB News Group just released the results of a poll conducted over the past week.

The frontrunners in the governor's race and the race in the First District for Congress are in a dead heat.

Monday night, the candidates for governor squared off on statewide television.  With just five days to go until the November election, the two frontrunners remain neck and neck.

The Idaho Business Review and KTVB News Group commissioned a poll between October 25 and November 1st - with a 4.4 percent margin of error. Democrat Jerry Brady leads Republican Butch Otter 41 percent to 36 percent.  But the poll finds 20 percent of Idahoans are still undecided.

 “This is another confirmation of the fact that this is a very close race,” NewsChannel 7 political analyst Dr. Jim Weatherby said. “There are a significant number of undecided voters.”

Weatherby says just who those voters are remains a mystery. 

“At this point, it's just a matter of each group getting their voters out,” he said. “It appears that Brady has his base, the question is, can Otter get his base and some independents to close the gap?”

It appears the race in the First Congressional District is also a dead heat.  With a 5.7 percent margin of error, the same poll found Democrat Larry Grant leading with has 38 percent – and Republican Bill Sali with 34 percent. Of those polled, 25 percent say they still haven’t made up their mind. 

"Twenty-five percent is huge,” Weatherby said. “Add to that the margin of error - so we really don't know a lot about this race yet. This is a mere snapshot and still a very volatile political picture.”

Weatherby says how effective each campaign and candidate has been in driving voters to the polls could help turn the tide either way in both tight races.

This is the nitty-gritty ground game that will ultimately determine the result,” he said.