Boise State's BCS hopes: Impossible becomes possible

Boise State's BCS hopes: Impossible becomes possible

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by Jay Tust

Bio | Email | Follow: @KTVBSportsGuy

KTVB.COM

Posted on November 25, 2012 at 3:01 AM

Updated Monday, Nov 25 at 2:43 PM

BOISE -- Everything went the Boise State football team’s way on Saturday.

Not bad considering they did not even play a game.

Sitting at No. 22 in the BCS Standings, the criteria for the Broncos to clinch the automatic non-AQ berth is simple:

1. Be ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings.

2. A) Be ranked higher than that of a champion from an AQ conference.

    B) Be ranked higher than all other non-AQ teams.

3. Win the Mountain West title.

Thanks to the outcomes of the games they were able to watch this week, the impossible is now possible.

After No. 16 Texas lost to TCU on Thursday, Washington State beat No. 25 Washington and Arizona State knocked of No. 24 Arizona on Friday.

The significance of the Huskies’ and Sun Devils’ losses - it prevents any obvious teams from jumping an idle Boise State squad.

The action would pick up on Saturday morning. Both No. 18 Rutgers and No. 20 Louisville lost to a pair of 5-6 opponents. With the Scarlet Knights and Cardinals likely to free fall in the rankings because of it, the Broncos should hold a comfortable lead over both when the standings come out on Sunday.

The favorable final scores would continue to pop up as the day wore on.

Before No. 21 Oklahoma State lost to No. 13 Oklahoma in overtime, No. 19 Michigan was beat by Ohio State. In between those two games, No. 15 Oregon State was blown out by No. 5 Oregon, while No. 8 Stanford capped the night by clubbing No. 17 UCLA.

By the time all was said and done, eleven of the top 25 teams in the BCS Standings lost, including the seven ranked directly ahead of the Broncos.

Will the computers kill them?

Now Boise State will wait.

With the second-to-last BCS Standings set to come out on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. (MT), how high can they climb? What does all this mayhem mean?

While Broncos have received support from the USA Today Coaches Poll and the Harris Interactive College Football Poll for most of the season, the computers have killed them. Their current ranking in each:

Jeff Sagarin - 49

Colley Matrix - 40

Anderson & Hester - 40

Richard Billingsley - 29

Kenneth Massey - 49

Peter Wolfe - 41

If Boise State continues to receive a “.000” for their computer average - and that is expected to be the case - it will make the required jump to No. 16 that much more difficult.

In the mean time, they have to keep an eye on two non-AQ squads from the MAC: No. 23 Kent State and No. 26 Northern Illinois.

Currently Boise State is the top non-AQ team, but but since both the Golden Flashes and Huskies have considerably more support from the computers, it will make them candidates to jump the Broncos.

Needless to say, Boise State’s game against Nevada next week will be full of meaning. A win would guaranteed them a share of the Mountain West title and could put them in the BCS. A loss could drop them all the way to the New Mexico Bowl.

With the game playing out at 1:30 p.m. (MT) on ABC, half of the country will get to witness what the Broncos are made of.

Is it better to be lucky than good? Can Bronco Nation dream ‘BCS big’?

We will know those answers shortly.

But considering home much help Boise State received on Saturday, it does not seem unreasonable to think they can get a little more on Sunday.

— Jay Tust (Follow on Twitter: @KTVBSportsGuy)

 

 

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